Saturday, March 6, 2010

To the Mattresses Week 9 - Oscar Predictions *updated with winners

I'm usually pretty good at this, but for some reason this year I'm a bit apprehensive, possibly due to Avatar.  It was a visually amazing movie, but the amount of people calling for this to win Best Picture suprises me.  And sadly, very few crime movies to root for this year, though I do hear very good things about the Foreign Language film Un Prophete.  Supposedly, it's brilliant.  I wouldn't know, it will never play up here.  I'll catch it on DVD when I can.

Okay.  Here we go.

Best Picture- The Hurt Locker.  WINNER
Should it win, why not?  I had some problems with it, but it was a better film than Avatar.  Sadly, my favorite picture of the year, Where the Wild Things Are didn't even garner a nomination in the bloated ten movie race.  Overall, it was a weak year.

Best Actor- Jeff Bridges WINNER
Have yet to see the film, but the man is due.  Frankly he was robbed for not even receiving a nomination for The Big Lebowski.  Any other year I'd be hoping for Clooney.

Supporting Actor- Christoph Waltz WINNER
It's easy to sound cool when reciting Quentin Tarantino's words, but this man did it in FOUR languages.  He was scary and charming and made it look effortless.

Actress- Meryl Streep Sandra Bullock
I've got a feeling they are going to give it to Sandra Bullock, but I hope not.  The movie looked like a pap piece of shit, and I have no desire to be swallowed by the the whole "feel goodness" about it.  And while I wasn't all that impressed with Julie & Julia, there is no denying that Streep kicked ass as Julia Child.

Supporting Actress- Mo'Nique WINNER
Haven't seen the movie yet, but every clip I've seen of her absolutely terrifies me.  It breaks my heart to go against Maggie Gyllenhaal, but it's been over 20 years since a single named actress won a trophy.  I'm all about the whole brevity thing dude.

Best Director- Kathryn Bigelow WINNER
Again, tough call.  Cameron certainly put his balls out there for Avatar, and Jason Reitman's movies just keep getting better, but I think it's Bigelow's year.  Maybe now people will pay more attention to Point Break.

Best Original Screenplay- Inglourious Basterds The Hurt Locker
Sorry to the Coen Brothers, but I gotta give it to Q this year.  His scripts are always facinating, but it took some guts to re-write history and have so much fun doing it.

Best Adapted Screenplay- Up in the Air  Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009) - Geoffrey FletcherOnly because it's getting shut out of everything else.  I'd love to see District 9 take this.

Best Animated Feature - Up WINNER
Who is going to vote against Pixar?  Great all around category though.

Best Foreign Language Film- Un Prophete  El secreto de sus ojos
Gotta rally behind at least one crime film.

All the rest, or, the films that make the difference in all the Oscar pools.
Cinematography - The Hurt Locker Avatar
Visual Effects - Avatar WINNER
Sound Mixing - Avatar The Hurt Locker
Sound Editing - Avatar The Hurt Locker
Film Editing - The Hurt Locker WINNER
Makeup- Star Trek WINNER
Costume Design - Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus The Young Victoria
Art Direction - Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Avatar
Live Action Short - The New Tenants WINNER
Animated Short - Logorama (Thanks Shane) WINNER
Documentary Short - The Last Truck Music by Prudence
Documentary Feature Length - The Cove WINNER
Best Original Score - Up WINNER
Best Original Song - The Weary Kind, from Crazy Heart WINNER

Come Monday, we'll all see if I'm full of it.


  1. We're pretty close in many of these, Dan. I won't post all of them, but here's the cut-n-paste from the most recent bet I have going tonight, covering just the "Top 10" categories:

    PICTURE -- Avatar
    DIRECTOR -- James Cameron
    ACTOR -- Jeff Bridges
    ACTRESS -- Sandra Bullock
    SUPPORTING ACTOR -- Christoph Waltz
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY -- Inglourious Basterds
    SONG -- "The Weary Kind"

    I think it's a coin flip for Avatar to take it, but no one in their right mind should be voting against Mo'Nique this year; it's as much as a "lock" as things can be, I think. As for Bullock -- I get the sense they're not going to give it to Streep only because it was kind of a 'been-there/done-that' role for her before. Christoph Waltz is, in my opinion, as much a lock for this category as Mo'Nique, and with the company he's in, I don't see much trouble nailing this one. 'Basterds had no chance for Picture, because of the alt-history perspective, but I think because of that creativity it's got a shot at taking Original Screenplay. Funny how that works -- the same criteria for one win is exactly why you'll lose another. Up looks amazing, and I wish I had more faith in Coraline to pull this one off -- should it win, I'll never have been so happy to lose some $

  2. Well Shane- for two well read guys with extensive film knowledge, we sure as hell sucked on the screenplay categories.

  3. We really did. I have to admit, though I can appreciate why people are crazy for THE HURT LOCKER, I just didn't see what the fuss was about really. I didn't think it was bad, but not superior by any means, and very clumsy in some ways, too. *shrugs*